Hello, my name is Mr. March and I'm here today to teach you all about the factors that affect hazard risk.

So grab everything that you need for today's lesson and let's get going.

By the end of today's lesson, you'll be able to understand there are several factors that affect hazard risk.

And there are two key words for today's lesson, those being hazard risk and natural hazard.

Hazard risk refers to the likelihood that people or property will be harmed by a natural hazard, while natural hazard refers to a natural event that has the potential to cause damage, loss of life, or economic disruption.

We have three learning cycles for today, and we're gonna start with our first learning cycle, which is what is hazard risk? Hazard risk is the chance of being affected by a natural hazard, and different factors affect this risk.

For example, river flooding is a natural hazard, but which one of these locations has a higher risk of flooding and why? You may like to pause the video here whilst you study those photographs and consider and make your answer.

Well, the one near the river is the one which is at a higher risk.

The other location is high up on the hill, well away from the river, thereby much more safe from any potential flooding.

So distance and location and proximity to that river undoubtedly plays a part in the overall hazard risk from flooding.

And location is just one of many different factors that affect hazard risk.

Other factors include population density and distribution.

How many people live in the area? Is it a density or sparsely populated area? If it is an urban area, then it is densely populated and therefore is at a much higher risk from this hazard.

Level of development.

Is the country or region that we're speaking about, is it a high income country or is it a low income country? If it is a high income country, then it is probably more able to deal with those natural hazards which may be coming its way.

And this links in nicely with vulnerability.

Vulnerability refers to the social, economic, and environmental factors that speak about how vulnerable a country or region is.

And coping capacity refers to a country or region's ability to be able to deal with that natural hazard.

How good is its healthcare? How prepared are the emergency services? Et cetera.

Then of course we've got the magnitude of the natural hazards, you know, the physical properties of let's say a volcanic eruption, the physical properties of an earthquake.

How strong, how intense is that natural hazard plays a huge role in the risk from a hazard.

The frequency of a natural hazard, how often do they occur? Do they occur many times a year, such as with some tropical or some areas with tropical storms, or do they occur every 10, 20, 30, or even 100, 200 years as can be experienced with certain tectonic events? And finally, the physical geography and location undoubtedly plays a role as well.

So, learning check.

What is hazard risk? I would like you to read through the three options.

Pause the video here whilst you select and make your answer.

And the correct answer is, so hazard risk then is the likelihood that people or property will be harmed by a natural hazard.

Really, really well done if you're able to get that correct.

The United Nations assesses hazard risk from 191 countries using the Index for Risk Management, also known as INFORM.

So, they can be broken down into three categories: hazard and exposure, vulnerability, lack of coping capacity.

And there is a equation that can be done in order to produce this calculation for its rank and it is risk.

Risk equals hazard and exposure times vulnerability, times lack of coping capacity.

So, what do these categories even refer to? Then hazard exposure refers to the type of hazard and the risk of people being exposed to it.

Vulnerability refers to the economic, political, and social characteristics that make a community more or less vulnerable to a natural hazard, e.

g.

access to healthcare.

And then finally, the lack of coping capacity.

How much has government done to prepare its people for the natural hazard, our organisations, our emergency services prepared and experienced to deal with this natural hazard? So, by using data from INFORM to regularly assess every country's risk profile, the United Nations can provide information about hazard risk.

And the map below shows exactly that.

It's being colour coded to show areas in countries which have a very high hazard risk in the darker colours down to the lighter shades, which have a very low hazard risk.

So again, a learning check.

The UN's Index for Risk Management is based on what equation for risk.

I'd like you to read through A, B and C.

Pause the video and then select your answer.

Good luck.

And the correct answer was A.

Risk equals hazard and exposure times vulnerability, times lack of coping capacity.

Really, really well done if you're able to get that.

Time now for a practise task.

And here you are being given the equation for hazard risk.

And we're asking you to suggest one thing that could increase a country's risk score for hazard and exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity.

And the second practise task asks you to describe the pattern of hazard risk shown on the map.

And I would like you to try to refer to continents in your answer.

So what I'd like you to do then is pause the video here whilst you attempt those two practise questions.

Good luck.

So, now some feedback, you were asked to suggest one thing that could increase a country's risk score.

Your answers may have included the following.

So if a hazard exposure, a country with a high population density has a higher risk because there are more people exposed to that hazard.

Vulnerability, a country without an effective healthcare system would have a higher risk score as people would not get as easily cared for.

The lack of coping capacity.

Well, a country whose government has done little to prepare people for that natural hazard will have a much higher risk score.

And now, the second question, you were asked to describe the pattern of hazard risk shown on the map.

And your answer could have included any of the following, that most countries with very high hazard risk are in Africa and most of those countries are just north of the Equator.

The south of Asia has a lot of countries which have a very high or high risk to hazards.

And finally, areas with low or very low hazard risk are in North America, Europe, central Asia, and eastern Asia, and Oceania.

So really, really well done if you are able to include any of those answers in your own.

So, on now to our second learning cycle, and we're looking at what physical factors affect hazard risk.

Now, hazard risk then is determined by the frequency, how often and the magnitude of those hazard risks.

For example, frequency is how often that natural hazard occurs.

Regions which frequently experience hazards will often have a higher hazard risk.

Meanwhile, the magnitude is all about how powerful, how strong that hazard is.

High magnitude events which are very strong earthquake or a powerful volcanic eruption are generally much riskier than low magnitude once.

Now the physical geography, by which I mean the natural geography affects hazard risk in a number of different ways.

These can be the geographical position, the weather and climate, the relief of the land, tectonic processes, and vegetation of the land.

So if we begin with geographical position and tectonic processes and how these two physical factors often combine to increase the hazard risk, well, areas near tectonic plate margins are at a higher risk of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.

Take for example the Pacific Ring of Fire where we see that belt of volcanoes and often earthquakes happening there as well.

This leads to a much higher level of risk for any person or people living in those areas.

Similarly, earthquakes that occur close to an earth surface usually cause more shaking than those occurring deep down.

And finally, the amount of silica in lava affects how explosive a volcanic eruption will be.

And now these eruptions in the earthquakes are typically found on certain types of plate margin, thereby showing us how geographical position and tectonic processes link together to form a higher or lower hazard risk.

Again, geographical position, weather and climate, and relief of the land often combined to create a high or lower risk of hazard.

So tropical storms, for example, are restricted.

They only occur in latitudes between 5 and 30 degrees north and south of the Equator.

So if you are living inside that belt, then you are at risk from a tropical storm.

Droughts are more likely in arid or semi-arid climates and floods are much more likely in areas with high rainfall such as monsoon rainfall.

And finally, low lying coastal areas are more vulnerable to storm surges.

So typically low-lying islands, for example, are much, much more vulnerable to those storm surges which can cause death and destruction.

Meanwhile, the relief of the land, by which I mean the shape of the land and the vegetation of the land often combine to influence the level of hazard risk.

For example, mountainous regions are much more at risk from landslides and avalanches.

Meanwhile, slopes without much vegetation cover have a higher risk of landslides than those covered by trees.

And this is due to when high rainfall occurs, this can lubricate that soil, and without any vegetation or roots holding that soil in place, this can lead to unfortunately landslides, which again can cause death and destruction.

So what I'd like you to do now for the learning check is to match these physical factors to their correct definitions.

So, read the physical factor on the left and read the correct definition on the right and match them up.

Pause the video here whilst you attempt this question.

So the correct answers were that magnitude links to how powerful the intensity of a natural hazard.

Frequency links to how often that natural hazard occurs.

Geographical position links to the place where something occurs.

And finally, the physical geography refers to the natural features such as relief, climate, landforms, and soil type.

Really, really well done if you're able to get those correct.

So the UN's INFORM risk index can be filtered to just show natural hazards that then shows each country's risk for all natural hazards or for individual hazards.

So what we can begin to see are countries and regions which are at a very high hazard risk as shown on the map below with a dark colour down to those areas and countries with a low hazard risk, those countries shown in a much more pale colour.

So, on the right we can also see a diagram showing us the percentage of the world's population who live in countries at each risk level for natural hazards.

And we can see that 55 1/2% of people globally live in areas which have a very, very high level of hazard risk.

Meanwhile, if we're looking at low hazard risk, it's just 7.

1%, thereby indicating just how dangerous the world in which we live actually is.

So individual natural hazards can be selected.

For example, this INFORM map extract is shown the risk of earthquakes in Europe alone.

What we can see straight away is that Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Greece, and other countries in North Africa are a much higher risk of earthquakes than in other parts.

Now, I'm just gonna ask you right here, and you might like to pause the video whilst you consider your answer.

What physical factors might explain why the UK is very low risk when it comes to earthquakes, but Italy has a very high risk? So once again, you may like to pause the video whilst you consider your own answer towards that.

Well, Italy, as Laura rightly asks, is it near a tectonic plate margin? And she is absolutely correct in asking that question.

Italy does lie near a tectonic plate margin and therefore is at a higher level of risk from earthquakes and indeed volcanic eruptions.

Meanwhile, the UK is hundreds if not thousands of kilometres away from a tectonic plate margin and thereby doesn't really have any kind of risk from a tectonic hazard.

So a learning check.

This map extract shows frequency of drought events for Africa.

Which physical factor is most likely to explain drought frequency? You have three options.

Pause your video here whilst you select your answer.

And the correct answer was climate patterns.

Now remember, drought refers to a prolonged period without any rainfall or with minimal rainfall, and therefore it's related to precipitation, which therefore links nicely to climate patterns.

Really, really well done if you've got that answer correct.

Now onto our practise questions.

This photo comes from the cliffs at Lyme Regis in Dorset in the UK.

And you have two questions.

The first one is to identify what natural hazard or hazards might this location be at risk of.

And the second is for you to identify what physical factor or factors might increase the hazard risk at this location.

So what I'd like you to do is pause the video here whilst you attempt those two questions.

Best of luck.

And some feedback.

So we're looking at question one right here.

We can see evidence of a landslide.

The landslide because the photo shows a cliff.

And in the middle of the cliff it looks like a large amount of material has fallen down.

At the base of the cliff, it looks like a beach.

So maybe another hazard could be storm surges, those powerful waves driven by wind.

Now for the second practise task, you were asked to look at the photo and try to identify the physical factors that may increase the hazard risk at this location, particularly from a landslide.

So for the landslide then you may have referred to the relief, for example, the steep slope there, which would undoubtedly increase the risk from a landslide.

You may also have referred to the possibility that heavy rainfall may increase the risk of landslides, especially if the cliff's geological structure is very unstable.

You may also refer to the fact that if this is at the coast, then the waves may have undercut and erode the base of the cliff, thereby increasing the risk of a landslide.

Really, really well done if you're able to include any of those answers in your own.

So we're onto our third and final learning cycle, and this is has to do with the human factors that affect hazard risk.

Now, INFORM uses these three categories for assessing hazard risk as we previously identified.

Exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity are all human factors, but hazard refers to the physical factors.

Exposure relates to the number of human beings who are at risk from the hazard.

The vulnerability refers to economic and social and indeed political factors that can make some societies and groups more vulnerable.

And finally, lack of coping capacity refers to how well the government is able to cope or deal with that natural disaster.

Population density and distribution are therefore extremely important.

For example, an earthquake in a uninhabited location has absolutely no hazard risk.

For example, if an earthquake happened in the middle of a farmer's field with nobody around, then it's unlikely to do any death or damage to property.

But an earthquake which happens in a densely populated city, for example, in San Francisco, which is always at risk from an earthquake due to its location, then there is a very high hazard risk.

Now on the map in front of you, you can see these concentric red circles.

The red circles are recent earthquakes.

A solid red are higher magnitude and orange circles are proportional population sizes.

So we can begin to see some of the areas on this map which have a higher risk towards earthquakes such as Tokyo in Japan shown there on that map, which has a large population but is also very much vulnerable to earthquakes.

So, which city has the highest risk of earthquakes? I would like you to read through the options.

Pause the video and select your answer.

And the correct answer is Tokyo.

Again, looking at the map, we can see the number of dense red circles, which are showing high magnitude earthquakes.

And we can also see the large orange circle there as well, indicating the proportional population size, thereby putting Tokyo at a highest risk of earthquakes.

Now, what makes communities more vulnerable to natural hazards? Some factors include level of economic development, level of inequality, economic dependency, and vulnerable groups such as displaced people.

I'd like you maybe to consider the two images on the screen in front of you.

The first is of a flooding event in York in the United Kingdom.

And the bottom image is one taken after a flooding event in Bangladesh.

Which country, which area do you think was more affected and why? You may like to pause the video whilst you consider that answer.

We're gonna start by looking at the level of economic development and how this human factor can affect hazard risk.

How wealthy a country or community is can really affect things.

So for example, high income countries and communities can afford better healthcare.

They can afford better and stronger housing.

They can be more prepared.

They can invest in earthquake-resistant buildings.

They will be able to deal much, much better in preparing and even responding to that disaster, to that hazard.

Lower income countries may not have the resources to build those strong buildings or early warning systems or be able to provide that immediate disaster relief that is so crucial in the first 24 to 48 hours after a natural disaster.

The level of inequality.

This is about the gap between the rich and poor in a society.

In very unequal societies, poor people may live in more vulnerable areas and in more vulnerable housing, such as on floodplains or steep slopes.

And indeed even the housing they live in may be of poor quality itself, which could be at more risk from earthquakes.

In contrast, rich people in these societies may live in safer areas and have more protection from those hazards.

Economic dependency.

This is about how much a community or country relies on one type of industry.

For example, in coastal areas that rely on fishing are vulnerable to a tropical storm destroying all their fishing boats and removing their main source of income, thereby leaving those people very, very vulnerable to poverty and hunger.

If people in coastal areas have also jobs in tourism and retail, then these areas are less vulnerable.

So if they have a diverse income opportunities, then they're much less at risk from the after effects of a natural hazard or disaster since they're more resilient and can get themselves back on their feet much, much quicker than a country or region which is solely dependent on, for example, the fishing industries.

Vulnerable groups.

These are groups of people who are more likely to be affected by hazards than others.

Some examples may include the children and elderly people, people with disabilities, homeless people as well as refugees and displaced people who may live in unsafe areas and may not have access to services like healthcare.

So a learning check.

True or false.

Some people in a community are likely to be more vulnerable to a hazard event than others.

So pause your video here whilst you select your answer.

And the correct answer was true.

And now again, I'd like you to pause the video whilst you consider why it is true.

And the reason why it is true is that in very unequal societies, poorer people may be much more vulnerable to hazards than richer people in the same community because of where they live.

They may live in poor quality housing.

They may live in areas which are more prone to, let's say flooding.

It's also the case that some groups are more vulnerable than others.

For example, old people and children.

Old people are much, much more difficult to evacuate in times of a natural hazard and just generally more vulnerable in terms of their health.

So on now to coping capacity.

Now coping capacity, as we've said previously, is just about how effectively a country or community can manage and respond to a natural hazard.

The level of coping capacity or how well it is able to cope with a natural hazard can be based on different factors.

The first of which is infrastructure.

Now we can talk about communications and phone networks and adult literacy.

This all plays a part in how well a country can deal and respond to a natural hazard.

Second of all is healthcare undoubtedly plays a huge, huge role.

How many doctors are there? How many nurses are there? How many hospitals and clinics are there in that region? All plays a part in how well that region can respond to a natural disaster and bring healthcare to those people that need it most.

Finally, as the physical infrastructure, by which I mean the roads, the water supply and sanitation can greatly impact a country or region's ability to respond to that natural hazard.

The roads being well-developed means emergency services can access that area that needs help.

Being able to bring fresh and clean water to that area means that people don't have to potentially drink diseased water and thereby die from secondary effects.

Likewise, the same with sanitation.

The other half is government.

And we can look here at Disaster Risk Reduction or DDR, investment in monitoring of the natural hazard could be earthquake, it could be volcanic eruptions, it could be tropical storms. How well are they tracking that tropical storm so they know where and when that tropical storm is gonna make landfall? So prediction, protection, and planning are all part of the government sphere as to what they can do to make sure that they are coping well.

With this natural hazard.

Government effectiveness can be reduced by corruption.

Most famously, the country of Haiti was hit very hard by an earthquake in the 2010s.

And this was made worse by the large levels of corruption in the government at that time.

So we can see how people can be negatively affected by the lack of government effectiveness.

So now a learning check.

Now, as I said previously, infrastructure is an important part of a society's coping capacity, but there is one missing component in this list below, I would like you to read the information on the screen and try to identify the missing component.

So pause the video here whilst you make your answer.

And the missing component is healthcare.

Yes, the number of healthcare workers, the number of doctors, the number of nurses and hospitals plays a huge, huge role in a country's ability to deal with a natural hazard.

So Alex is absolutely correct when he said that healthcare workers must be really important in disasters.

They absolutely are.

So, we're on now to our final practise tasks.

And the first one shows, again, an INFORM risk index map shown the risk according to inequality.

I would like you to suggest three more human factors that affect human risk that you would like to see mapped like this.

And the second question, for each of your three human factors, explain how it increases hazard risk.

So pause the video here whilst you attempt those two questions.

Best of luck.

Time now for some feedback.

And for question one, you were asked to suggest three more human factors affecting hazard risk that you would like to see mapped in the same way.

Your suggestions could have included three from the list below: access to healthcare, thinking about those nurses and doctors that provide healthcare after a a natural disaster, communications, corruption in government, economic dependency, inequality, level of economic development, by which I mean HIC, high income country, LIC, low income country, physical infrastructure, thinking about the road network there, population density, you know, how many people are living in an area? Is it an urban area, a densely populated area, or is it a rural area, sparsely populated area, not so many people live in there? Population distribution, and finally, vulnerable groups.

So here, John says that he has managed to identify population density, inequality, and vulnerable groups.

Yes, these are all human factors that affect hazard risk.

And the second question asks you to explain how for each of your three human factors, how it increases hazard risk.

And here are Jun's three answers for his three factors.

So population density increases hazard risk because the more people there are in an area that's affected by a natural hazard, logically the more risk there is that people will be affected by it.

Inequality increases hazard risk because in very unequal societies, poor people are much more likely to be vulnerable to hazard events, for example, because they're forced to live in risky places such as on floodplains near a river or on steep slopes which are vulnerable perhaps to landslides.

A higher number of vulnerable groups increases hazard risk in a community 'cause it'd be harder, especially for, for example, elderly people to escape the hazard.

So really, really well done if you included anything like those answers.

Really, really well done.

So to summarise, hazard risk is the likelihood that people or property will be harmed by a natural hazard.

Physical factors such as the magnitude and frequency of a natural hazard will affect hazard risk.

Human factors can have a significant impact on hazard risk.

Densely populated cities are likely to have the highest hazard risk in areas that are prone to natural hazards.

So really, really well done during today's lesson.

It was a pleasure teaching you today.

So thank you and I'll see you again soon.

Goodbye.