Hello, it's me, Mrs. Butterworth, ready to take you through today's English lesson.

Thank you for joining me.

Now, today's lesson, we'll be focusing on nonfiction texts.

In particular, we are going to be looking at how these texts use credible statistics, and how we can use credible statistics in our own nonfiction writing.

Okay, sound good? Great, let's get started.

So in this lesson, we will explore and understand what makes a credible statistic, and use this understanding to create your own credible statistics.

So two keywords today.

They are credible and reconvictions.

Now, credible is a very important word because this is what we want our statistics to be, and how we want our writing to sound, and this means that it is convincing, trustworthy, and reliable.

So this is going to be a really important concept today of how we make credible statistics to make our writing convincing, trustworthy, and reliable.

And then this word, reconvictions, pops up from the text.

So this means that you are found guilty of a crime after already being found guilty of another different crime, so you are reconvicted.

So the outline of our lesson looks like this.

We're going to start by understanding what makes a credible statistic, so looking at how writers use statistics themselves, what makes them effective, and then we're going to use that understanding to create our own credible statistics.

So let's get started with that first part of the lesson.

So first, I would like you to discuss what is a statistic, and why might a writer use a statistic? Okay, so pause the video so you can discuss those questions, and we'll feedback in a moment.

Off you go.

Okay, great.

Lots of you coming up with some fantastic definitions of what a statistic is, and also why a writer might use a statistic.

So let's just look at a possible definition.

So a possible definition is a piece of factual data gathered from a large quantity of numerical data.

So I think the idea of numerical data is really important now.

We know that statistic or statistics very often use numbers to convey the information.

So let's look at an example.

So in 2007, 14 prisons in England and Wales had reconvictions rates of more than 70%.

But why might a writer use a statistic? Now, often, writers use statistics to strengthen their arguments.

When you're reading a piece of writing and you see a statistic, it becomes more believable.

It seems, yeah, truthful.

And what this can do is that statistics can make a writer's argument seem credible because what they are saying, their opinion, is backed up with factual data.

So it makes an opinion easy to believe, potentially makes a piece of writing even more persuasive, because we've got this factual data to back up what we are saying.

So let's look at an example from the Guardian article about Norwegian prisons.

So the writer and former prisoner, Erwin James, writes this.

"It's always seemed to me while I was in jail "that the real prison scandal was the horrendous rate "of reoffending among released prisoners.

"In 2007, 14 prisons in England "and Wales had reconvictions rates of more than 70%." Okay, so what we have here, and why this is an effective use of statistics is because we begin by hearing James's personal opinion.

So it always seemed to me, and when I was in jail, so this is about his opinion, but then he uses that statistic to support that opinion, to give it credibility, to say yes, this is my opinion, but look, what I say is true.

Here's the numbers.

Here's the statistics to back it up.

So it is important that writers show that their statistics are credible, okay? So that important word, they're credible, that they're believable.

Readers must trust the reliability of the statistic that is being used.

So let's reconsider Erwin James's statistics.

So he says in 2007, 14 prisons in England and Wales had reconvictions rates of more than 70%.

Now, the reason this sounds credible, this sounds truthful and realistic, is because we have a date, don't we? 2007, okay? We also have a size of a data sample.

So 14 prisons, okay? So we've got the date, we've got the size of a data sample, and then we've also got the place where the data was collected.

So even before we get to that 70%, we've got the data statistic, 2007, the size of the data sample, 14 prisons, and finally, the place, England and Wales, where the data was collected.

Now, these details help readers trust the credibility of the statistic.

So I'd now like us to think about comparing a credible statistic to an untrustworthy or an unlikely statistic.

So I'd like you to look at James's credible statistic in comparison to the two that seem untrustworthy or unlikely.

So let's read those through together first.

So that first use of statistics is this, prisons have high reconvictions rates with 1 million prisoners reoffending each year.

And then the second, reconvictions rates have increased over the past decade to almost 99%.

Okay, so what I would like you to do now is I'd like you to pause the video and discuss what are the differences between these statistics.

Pause the video, and off you go.

Okay, some really great and perceptive answers there.

So lots of you notice that the numbers themselves seem unbelievable.

So 1 million prisoners and 99%, they are quite high numbers, and don't really feel realistic compared to that 70% of James's credible statistic.

So that use of the number is obviously very important.

It needs to sound realistic.

And also it doesn't, the untrustworthy, unlikely statistics don't have the detail that James's credible statistics do.

For example, the date, the sample number, and where the data was collected.

So you can see here how it is so important to make your statistics credible.

Okay, so what I would like you to do is I would like you to read through A, B, and C, and decide which of the following statistics appear credible.

So let's read through those answers together, and then you need to decide which appear credible.

So A, most prisoners, about 95%, have poor mental health, an alarming percentage.

This poor mental health means there are many acts of violence, and therefore, many reconvictions.

B, the Prison Reform Society in Britain suggests that only 8% of British citizens would be willing to pay more tax in order to improve the prison service following a survey in 2019.

And then C, there are educational programmes available to prisoners on Bastoy, and the governor reports that average attendance for 2013's prison populations hovers at around 76%.

So which of those statistics appear credible? Pick your answers now.

Who's feeling confident? Oh, great.

Lots of you.

Should we look at what the answer is? Okay, and it is B and C.

These are the credible statistics.

So let's just look at what makes them credible.

So you may have noticed the use of realistic numbers.

So we've got that 8% there.

We've also got the Prison Reform Society.

So we've named an establishment that makes it sound credible, and this idea of the survey in 2019.

So we're saying where that data's collected, who's collected it, and the date it was found, plus that realistic number.

Likewise, in C, we've got the realistic number.

We've also got that date, the date for when the data was collected in 2013, which gives it an added layer of credibility there.

Well done, everyone.

Let's keep going.

So we are on our first practise task.

So what I would like you to do, please, is I would like you to reread two sections of Erwin James's article titled, "The Norwegian prison "where inmates are treated like people." Now, these two sections are available on the worksheet, and then what I would like you to do is I would like you, first, to identify the two statistics used in these sections, and then I would like you to discuss what makes these statistics credible, and why do you think James researched these particular statistics for this article? Okay, so reread, identify, and then discuss.

Pause the video when you're ready to get started on this task.

Off you go.

Great, thank you so much for everyone and their answers.

So let's just look at the two statistics that James uses.

So hopefully, you have found the same.

So the first was that "The teacher explained "that all prisons in Norway worked on the same principle, "which he believed was the reason the country had, "at less than 30%, "the lowest reoffending figures in Europe, "and less than half the rate in the UK," and that the second statistic to identify was "The reoffending rate "for these released from Bastoy speaks for itself.

"At just 16%, it is the lowest in Europe." So those are the two statistics that you should have found.

And then here is a small section of Alex's discussion, our Oak pupil, about this use of statistics.

So Alex says that the statistics are credible because James gives information like where the data is sourced, excellent, where the data is sourced from, and the size of the data sample.

So again, it's about adding those layers of credibility.

I think James selected them to strengthen his argument that Bastoy is an effective prison.

Absolutely.

They really helped to bolster his own opinions and his own argument.

So I'd like you now to discuss why do you think the statistics are credible, and why do you think James selected them? Okay, pause the video to give yourself time to consolidate those ideas, either discussing, thinking by yourself, or even jotting down a few ideas.

Off you go.

Okay, great.

Thank you so much for your suggestions.

Okay, so we are on to the second part of the lesson.

So we've explored what makes a credible statistic, and how a writer uses them, and now we're going to use all of that understanding to start creating our own credible statistics.

So as a student of English, which you all are, you might choose or be asked to write a piece of nonfiction.

Now, it's important to understand that unlike Erwin James, our writer, you won't always be able to complete research before you write.

So in these instances, you can invent your own credible statistics to support your argument.

So you can make up the statistics.

It's about how you craft them that makes them believable.

So here is an example task that Alex has been asked to complete.

So the task is this.

Britain should learn from the values and systems of Bastoy prison island.

Write a paragraph which explains your view in relation to the statement.

So let's look at how Alex responds to that task.

Here is his paragraph.

Bastoy prison island might be branded cushy by some of its critics, but surely the most compelling aspect of the system is how it dramatically reduces rates of reconvictions.

Data released by the Norwegian government in 2021 showed that inmates released from Bastoy had the lowest reoffending rates in five continents.

Fewer reconvictions means a smaller prison population, a goal Britain must aim for, given that 90 of its 130 prisons at the start of 2024 had more than the regulation number of prisoners per cell according to the Prison Reform Trust.

So, over to you.

I've highlighted the use of statistics there, and I'd like you to just discuss, thinking about everything that we thought about in the first part of the lesson.

Discuss: why are Alex's statistics credible? Okay, why are Alex's statistics credible? Pause the video to give yourself time to discuss that question, or you may just wish to sit quietly and think about your answer to yourself.

Off you go.

Okay, great.

Lots of you picking up on the specifics that make these statistics credible.

So lots of you noticed that the institutions where the data was collected has been mentioned, so the Norwegian government and the Prison Reform Trust, so we know who's collected the data.

We've got when the data was collected, so that 2021 and 2024.

We've also got realistic numbers, so 90 of 130, so that makes it realistic.

So we can see how these statistics have been made credible.

Again, it's about layering up those moments of credibility.

Okay, so Sam has also written a paragraph in response to the statement, Britain should learn from the values and systems of Bastoy prison island.

Write a paragraph which explains your view in relation to the statement.

So same task as Alex, but this is Sam's paragraph.

Let's have a look.

Bastoy prison has a different set of values and beliefs in relation to prisoners than Britain.

Not only this, Norway has a different budget.

Norway spends 100 times as much on its prison services, and gets better results in terms of reconvictions.

For example, only 0.

01% of prisoners released commit another crime.

A lot of Norwegians are willing to pay most of their salaries in taxes each month for this kind of result.

The question is, are we willing to pay for the type of service that Bastoy believes in? Okay, so some statistics, as you can see here, I've highlighted, they're not credible.

Okay, so I'd like you to discuss why are these statistics not credible? But more importantly, what could Sam do to make these statistics credible? Okay, pause the video to give yourself time to discuss those questions, think quietly to yourself, or even jot some ideas down.

Okay, pause the video.

Off you go.

Okay, great.

So lots of you are thinking about what has not made these statistics credible.

So we're picking up on the unrealistic numbers.

So only 0.

01% is an incredibly low number, and doesn't really sound that believable.

Likewise, the idea that Norway is spending 100 times as much on prisons.

Again, that's a really high number.

So it's important to get the balance right.

You don't want the number too low and you don't want it too high.

So that would be something that could be improved here in terms of that.

Sam could potentially add a date as well, as when the data was collected, who collected the data, all of those levels of credibility that we could add to make it sound much more credible.

So Sam now focuses on rewriting the sentence, so the statistic becomes more credible.

So a lot of Norwegians are willing to pay most of their salaries in taxes each month for this kind of result.

So what I would like you to do is I'd like you, like Sam, to rewrite this sentence, so that the statistic becomes credible.

Okay, so how can we rewrite that sentence to make it seem more credible? Pause the video to give yourself time to do this, and we'll feedback some answers in a moment.

Off you go.

Ah, fantastic work, everyone.

Lots of you really picking up on how we can make those credible statistics and those layers of credibility and reliability.

Well done.

So let's look at a redrafted sentence, and you can take a moment to compare it to your own.

You may even want to take a few moments to improve your own.

That's absolutely fine too.

Let's have a look.

So here is Sam's redrafted sentence.

Polling conducted by the Norwegian government in 2021 revealed that over half of its citizens accept that up to 65% of their taxes go towards the prison service in an effort to keep reconvictions to a minimum.

So you may have something similar.

You may also have concluded, included, a date of when the data was collected, who and where the data was collected, so by the Norwegian government, and then that 65% of taxes is a much more realistic number, isn't it? So well done, everyone.

You're really getting the hang of this.

Well done.

So I would like you now to discuss why is Sam's statistic credible, and how did you create a credible statistic? So we've already discussed this through together first, but now I'd like you to do it on your own.

So why is Sam's statistic credible? And then I'd like you to consider your own work and how you created a credible statistic.

Pause the video so you've got time to do this.

Off you go.

Okay, we are now at our second final task, and now this is all about you creating your own piece of writing using statistics.

So using everything we've learned this lesson and bringing it all together.

So here's our statement.

Britain should learn from the values and systems of Bastoy prison island.

I would like you please to write a paragraph which explains your view in relation to the statement.

So think about Alex's and Sam's work that we have looked at today to help you think about what you're going to write.

Now, your paragraph must include two credible statistics.

Okay, now remember to make your statistics credible, you could state where the statistics come from, so, for example, a particular organisation.

Give the date at which the statistic was released.

You could create believable figures.

For example, avoid 99% or less than 0.

00001%, for example.

So don't go too extreme, and use the statistics to support your particular argument in relation to the statement.

Okay, I think we've got everything we need to complete this.

Great, okay.

So pause the video, get writing that paragraph, including those two credible statistics.

Off you go.

Okay, great job.

How good are those statistics? They are just getting better and better and better, and this will just make any future you write, any future writing you do in this style even more credible, believable, and authoritative, which is exactly what we're aiming for.

So let's look at Jacob's work here.

So this is one of the statistics that Jacob included in his paragraph.

Let's read it through together.

In 2015, a small prison in Lincolnshire adapted the systems of Bastoy.

The results were remarkable.

Of the 1,056 prisoners released that year, a tiny 13% reoffended in the following 12 months, a 65% drop on the previous year according to the prison's official records.

So what Jacob then does is he annotates his statistics to show why it is credible.

So let's look at Jacob's annotations.

So first, he notices that he has included a date, he's included the location, and realistic numbers.

We know it's a reliable source, the prison's official records.

So what I'd like you to do now is look at your statistics and do the exact same thing.

So I want you to annotate the statistics that where you.

I would like you please to annotate the statistics you have used in your paragraph to show why they are credible.

So I'm just going to repeat that.

Exactly like Jacob's done there with his annotations, I would like you to annotate the statistics you have used in your paragraph to show why they are credible.

So pause the video to give yourself time to annotate your statistics, and show where you have made them credible.

Off you go.

Okay, fantastic work, everyone.

You have done really well.

And don't forget everything we've learned in this lesson, and remember to include these credible statistics in future nonfiction writing.

Okay, it will really help to elevate your responses.

Okay, so what do we know? We know that a statistic is a piece of factual data gathered from a large quantity of numerical data.

Statistics can make a writer's argument seem credible because their opinion is backed up with factual data.

Writers show that statistics are credible, so writers, including you, by including things like the source and the date of the data they refer to, and you can invent your own credible statistics in pieces of writing where you are not expected to conduct research.

Again, a very well done, and thank you so much for your hard work.

Let's do this all again soon in another lesson.

See you then.

Goodbye.