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Year 9

Predicting the weather

I can use a simple model to predict the weather.

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Year 9

Predicting the weather

I can use a simple model to predict the weather.

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Lesson details

Key learning points

  1. A probability model can be used to predict the weather
  2. Some models are better than others at predicting the weather
  3. An incorrect prediction does not necessarily mean the model is so wrong it should be changed

Keywords

  • Forecast - A forecast is a prediction of a future event occurring (based on data).

  • Extrapolation - Extrapolation is the process of estimating unknown values that are outside the range of existing data.

Common misconception

If the weather report has the rain icon, it means it will rain.

The rain symbol is to denote what type of rain it is likely to be should it rain. The percentage chance of rain then informs us about how likely it is to rain.


To help you plan your year 9 maths lesson on: Predicting the weather, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs...

This lesson follows on from the lesson on understanding weather data. That lesson should be covered before this one as knowledge from that lesson is assumed here.
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Licence

This content is © Oak National Academy Limited (2025), licensed on Open Government Licence version 3.0 except where otherwise stated. See Oak's terms & conditions (Collection 2).

Lesson video

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6 Questions

Q1.
A rectangle has lengths 2 m by 4 m. Its area is m$$^2$$.
Correct Answer: 8, eight
Q2.
5.5 litres = __________ millilitres.
0.0055
0.055
550
Correct answer: 5500
Q3.
Which likelihood describes an event with a probability of 80%?
impossible
unlikely
even chance
Correct answer: likely
certain
Q4.
Which fractions are equivalent to 80%?
$${1}\over{80}$$
$${1}\over{8}$$
$${1}\over{5}$$
Correct answer: $${4}\over{5}$$
Correct answer: $${80}\over{100}$$
Q5.
$$1 : 6 = 0.8 : x$$. What is the value of $$x$$?
Correct Answer: 4.8, four point eight
Q6.
A cuboid has lengths 1 m by 1 m by 1 mm. The volume of the cuboid is mm$$^3$$.
Correct Answer: 1 000 000, 1,000,000, one million

6 Questions

Q1.
6.5 mm of rain means that every one square metre of area will have 6.5 __________ of water fall on top of it.
millilitres
centilitres
Correct answer: litres
gallons
Q2.
Find the value of $$x$$.
An image in a quiz
Correct Answer: 8000, eight thousand
Q3.
This graph shows the mean night-time temperature in November each year from 2009 to 2022 in Oakfield. Which year had the lowest mean night-time temperature for November?
An image in a quiz
Correct Answer: 2013
Q4.
Which likelihood describes an event with a probability of 100%?
impossible
unlikely
even chance
likely
Correct answer: certain
Q5.
A weather forecast shows 20 days that have a 40% chance of rain. For how many of these 20 days could we expect rain?
Correct Answer: 8, eight
Q6.
The chart shows that it rained on % of the days, during the period of time shown.
An image in a quiz
Correct Answer: 60, sixty, 60%