Experimental probability
I can decide if a game/object is fair and calculate the experimental probability.
Experimental probability
I can decide if a game/object is fair and calculate the experimental probability.
These resources will be removed by end of Summer Term 2025.
Lesson details
Key learning points
- A set of results can be critically evaluated to help determine if a game/object is fair
- Different samples and may affect your perception of fair
- The experimental probability of an outcome/event can be calculated from a set of results
- Experimental probabilities can be used to estimate an event may occur in a set number of trials
Keywords
Experimental probability - The frequency of an outcome from an experiment can be used to produce an experimental probability. This is sometimes referred to as relative frequency.
Fair - A trial or experiment is fair if each outcome has an equal chance of happening. Each outcome is said to be equally likely.
Bias - If there is bias, in a trial or experiment, the outcomes are not equally likely.
Common misconception
If outcome A occurs more often than outcome B, during an experiment, pupils may conclude that outcome A has a greater probability of occurring than outcome B in future trials.
Even when two outcomes are equally likely to happen, one may occur more often than the other due to chance. You could be more confident about your conclusion if you observe a large difference in results in an experiment with a large number of trials.
Licence
This content is © Oak National Academy Limited (2024), licensed on Open Government Licence version 3.0 except where otherwise stated. See Oak's terms & conditions (Collection 2).
Lesson video
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Starter quiz
6 Questions
P(lives in Oakfield) -
$$125\over200$$
P(doesn't live in Oakfield) -
$$75\over200$$
P(shops in-store) -
$$130\over200$$
P(shops online) -
$$70\over200$$
P(lives in Oakfield and shops online) -
$$45\over200$$
P(lives in Oakfield and shops in-store) -
$$80\over200$$