Experimental vs theoretical probability
I can see the impact of sample size and compare theoretical probabilities to experimental ones.
Experimental vs theoretical probability
I can see the impact of sample size and compare theoretical probabilities to experimental ones.
These resources will be removed by end of Summer Term 2025.
Lesson details
Key learning points
- Different sample sizes can impact the experimental probabilities
- As the sample size increases, the experimental probabilities approach the theoretical probabilities
- A larger sample size is more likely to show a truer estimation of the underlying probability
Keywords
Trial - A trial is a single, pre-defined test.
Experiment - An experiment is a repetition of a trial multiple times in order to observe how often each outcome occurs.
Probability - The probability that an event will occur is the proportion of times the event is expected to happen in a suitably large experiment.
Common misconception
Pupils may assume that it possible to determine whether a coin (or other object/game) is biased by conducting an experiment with a small number of trials.
The greater the number of trial that an experiment contains, the closer the relative frequency of an outcome gets to its theoretical probability.
To help you plan your year 11 maths lesson on: Experimental vs theoretical probability, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs...
To help you plan your year 11 maths lesson on: Experimental vs theoretical probability, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs.
The starter quiz will activate and check your pupils' prior knowledge, with versions available both with and without answers in PDF format.
We use learning cycles to break down learning into key concepts or ideas linked to the learning outcome. Each learning cycle features explanations with checks for understanding and practice tasks with feedback. All of this is found in our slide decks, ready for you to download and edit. The practice tasks are also available as printable worksheets and some lessons have additional materials with extra material you might need for teaching the lesson.
The assessment exit quiz will test your pupils' understanding of the key learning points.
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Explore more key stage 4 maths lessons from the Conditional probability unit, dive into the full secondary maths curriculum, or learn more about lesson planning.
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Starter quiz
6 Questions








Exit quiz
6 Questions



